When a Nobel-prize winner shrugs his shoulders, and says, “I don’t know … ” to a question directly related to his field, it gives you pause.   Which is what economist, and Nobel winner, Robert Shiller is apt to do when you ask him what will happen next with the housing economy. He can tell you as well, or maybe better than anybody else what has happened historically and up to the last few months in the housing economy.  But when it comes to predicting what’s around the next corner, I’ve heard him say, more than a few times, “I don’t know, and if anybody tells you they do know, they’re lying.”

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